Sunday, January 27, 2008

We Are Nowhere Near A Bottom
















GOOG short has worked out perfectly since it's downside breakout from this symmetrical triangle. I have taken some off the table as GOOG is finding some support at its 200 dma but am still holding some as I believe this market is headed even lower.

Many are enjoying this bounce following the rate cut we had earlier this week but do not, I repeat do not take on big long positions. This economy is in some serious trouble. Consider this, all the losses by major banks so far have been due to low rate fixed mortgages. What is going to happen this year when all these ARM's go up? I will tell you what will happen, more losses and lower prices.

To make matters even worse, our dollar is sinking and there is nothing Bernanke can do about it. Bernanke is getting a lot of bad press but look at the situation he is in. If he refuses to lower rates, you will see this market drop off a cliff. If he keeps lowering rates our dollar will continue to fall. It doesn't matter what he does, he will be wrong. The only really safe play right now is gold. Bernanke has to cut rates, and that means gold is going to go up.

We are in a bear market so that means play by bear rules. All major indexes have just completed the death cross with the 50 dma crossing below the 200 dma. The majority of opportunities will be from the short side here. Look to sell the rallies.

8 comments:

joe donohue said...

couldn't agree more-we will test the lows soon-should be fun on the downside

Dinosaur Trader said...

It's not Bernanke's job to support the market. This is why he's receiving bad press.

the 75bp cut was egregious.

-DT

Ragin' Cajun said...

Good to see you posting, I look forward to reading your material.

todd said...

Such a beautiful set-up GOOG was. Just as pretty as its channel break-out in September. Certainly can't trust going long at this point. Well played!

Dinosaur Trader said...

Ah, I didn't realize that RC didn't post this...

Welcome profitabletrader!

-DT

Anonymous said...

You must be energized to earn some money!

If markets go down I will be buying more call options in FSLR and BIDU! Watch the earnings in about 2 weeks. There is a small chance (20%) of a DEPRESSION due to a financial meltdown! Through one hedge fund we are short the financials.


1 of GOD' s servants who wishes you the best!

PENNY STOCK RESEARCH said...

The bottom has to be somewhere.

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