Tuesday, October 9, 2007

I Will Be Out Today

Don't forget to check your morning news

....and your premarket movers.

Don't forget to look Between the Hedges.

....and your daily funny links via WSF.

I ordered another iPod Touch trough Apple's website, hopefully it's fully functional. I love this little device.

Please take the survey: Who is the best online broker? Poll ends tonight. For those of you that selected other, please leave the name of the broker in the comment section. I will update later tonight. Have a great day!

WallStrip: Google (GOOG)


Anonymous said...

You forgot one of the most popular online brokers amongst day traders, Interactive Brokers. Also Cybertrader is popular too.

Ragin' Cajun said...


With Interactive brokers, is there a flat fee per trade, or commission based solely per share?

Danny said...

change your vote? there should be no pussy-footing about here rage. BTW, my apple PT looks sexier each day.

On that note, few people saw this (I assume) but it makes many great points. Kudos to this guy.

"RIMM added 1.45M new subscribers last quarter. In the entire world. In over 120 countries, served by 300 carriers. In other words, throughout the globe, on every carrier, in every country, RIMM added 1.45M new users (not replacement handsets or upgrades for existing users, but new Blackberry users).

In the US alone, on one network, Apple has probably sold a similar number of iPhones to people choosing the iPhone in preference to any other phone - including one of its closest (and vastly cheaper) competitors, the Blackberry Pearl.

Apple are outselling RIMM to new subscribers right now. Apple, in one country, are attracting more people to switch to an iPhone than RIMM can attract to switch to Blackberries in the entire world.

In the current quarter, for the entire world - on 300 carriers, again - RIMM expects to attract 1.65M new subscribers.

I think its safe to say that with the US now running full steam ahead, and the European launch taking place in Germany and the UK (the two largest markets for mobile phones on the continent), Apple will probably sell at least 2M phones this quarter (Q1 08).

So in 3 countries, on 3 carriers, more people will be choosing the iPhone from Apple than RIMM can get to switch to a Blackberry to on 100 times as many carriers in 40 times as many countries.

In total, after decades of operations, RIMM only has just over 10M subscribers - AAPL will have that many by Summer 2008. A year after launching the iPhone. Shall we value the iPhone business at $60B right now then, Mr Wall Street?

And the media whores somehow paint this as a victory for RIMM, and are screaming that the Blackberry "withstood the onslaught from the iPhone unaffected." Are they insane? Are they smoking crack? Do they think that millions of consumer iPhone purchasers exist in a vacuum, somehow detached from the rest of the world?

The Blackberry is direct competition to the iPhone, and will become increasingly so as RIMM try to flesh out their consumer product range, complementing it with free .mac-like services such as the new Blackberry Unite (Apple take note! Over-the-net syncing of addresses, calendars etc is overdue). Both may well succeed (this isn't a RIMM-bashing post). But for the media and the industry to pretend that the iPhone isn't impacting RIMM sales to consumers is a joke, totally laughable. It goes absolutely without question in my eyes that of, say, 1.5M iPhone sales, hundreds of thousands of those would otherwise have gone to RIMM - and that's why RIMM did not beat expectations, and why I think their guidance - whilst good - is in fact rather unremarkable when viewed on context of Apple's incredibly successful iPhone launch.

As the iPhone is rolled-out globally, the impact of consumers choosing the iPhone over the Blackberry in the consumer sector - RIMM's fastest-growing market - will be felt more and more, and can only slow down Blackberry sales growth. As I said, this isn't a RIMM-bashing post so much as an observation that the media-take on the iPhone/Blackberry story is wholly misconceived and totally skewed. I firmly believe that although RIMM has enough momentum to continue rising in the short term, thanks to its global exposure, in the medium term, once Apple rolls out the iPhone globally and fleshes out its product range, RIMM stands to peak and plateau, sooner than most expect, unless they can capture consumers' imagination and interest the way Apple can.

They may succeed - only RIMM amongst all handset manufacturers evokes the passion and loyalty that Apple enjoys in the CE world - but transferring that devout addiction from the enterprise to the consumer will be a tough task. Frankly, in a way, I'm rooting for them to succeed - RIMM will be a useful foil against Nokia and there's room enough for all, but the media fawning euphoria at RIMM's numbers - and this is my point - is wholly misguided and predicated on a narrow and almost-myopic view of the two companies' sales. There's only one company whose phone business is going to grow exponentially henceforth. It isn't Nokia, and it isn't RIMM.

AAPL's iPhone business is chronically undervalued as part of the overall pie, and that's why AAPL's going to $350."

Ragin' Cajun said...

Danny, I never went bearish on AAPL, I just wanted to bring up a few issues.