Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Finding the Next "Baidu Like" Move

Just a few weeks ago BIDU was trading around $230, and I remember saying, "Baidu is too expensive, I will wait for it to pullback before buying a little." Well, I never got my pullback, and I missed out on 100 points.

Stocks that trade at high prices/high multiples, often make 100 points moves-- sometimes overnight. I have witnessed this many times, and it continues to happen. So in this post I will highlight a stock that I believe can make a
"Baidu like" move.

The stock is Intuitive Surgical. ISRG is engaged in the designing, manufacturing and marketing of the da Vinci Surgical Systems. This company represents the future of medicine, and there's literally no other major competitor.

Lets do a quick valuation of the company. ISRG trades at 34 times next years earnings, which is less than one times its growth rate, very cheap. The company plans to earn $4.20/share next year, which in my opinion, is too low. Just a few months back the company increased its revenue forecast from 40% to 50%
. I am willing to bet the company can earn $4.60/share in '08.

Given its current P/E of 94 and growth rate of 40%,
we can easily use a 70 multiple (P/E) to value the stock.

4.60 X 70 = $322

$320? Why does this number sound so familiar? Oh yea, it was Baidu's closing price.

Lets take a look at the two charts below, the first is BIDU (minus the current run), the second is ISRG. Notice anything similar? I do.








Now here is the rest of Baidu's chart:


Can Intuitive Surgical make a similar run from 230 to 320? I think it can. Earnings are right around the corner, and if last quarter has any indication of the upcoming quarter, I think think the run is imminent.

"No stock can move 100 points faster than Intuitive Surgical, which is tapping the international growth market." - Jim Cramer

48 comments:

Howard said...

you are a blogging machine. Keep it up dude. Market is downright silly but whose to say when it will end...could just be starting.

Ragin' Cajun said...

I'm trying my best to be added to your blogroll(market resources).

Anonymous said...

RC, nice analysis. I initiated a position at 232 and doubled up today at 242. I might not be around for $320 but I'm hoping it gets close prior to earnings! -TVH

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