Thursday, August 9, 2007

My Plan, My Trades

My Plan:
I believe the markets will be higher at year end, and I want to be part of the next leg up, don't you? Don't you think a lot of this sub-prime mess is already priced in? maybe, maybe not. No one knows for sure, so right now I want to set myself up, hopefully, for huge gains in the near future.

In order for me not sell at the lows, like our friend JJ, I believe I must like and understand my stocks. What do I mean like my stocks? Ok, lets say I own AAPL and CSCO, both companies have outstanding financials, in the event that both stocks fall significantly in price due to a fucktarded market, I am more likely to sell CSCO at it's lows than AAPL.

Why? Simply because I could give two shits about CSCO, it's such a boring company, I would lose faith in it due to a falling price. But, with AAPL, I love the company. I would look at a lower price as a sale, and would want to buy more, thus failing to sell at it's lows. It all about psychology, at least for me it is. Why do you think Danny didn't sell VLCM at it's lows? Because he liked and understood the company. He actually bought on the dip and made money. The proof is in the pudding, or maybe the oatmeal.

My Trades:
During the last few weeks I have dumped many stocks due to market clarity and have retained the ones I like as well as understand. That way on a huge pullback, which we have, I have more capital to add to my favorite names-- at lower prices. So here is the logic behind my trades:

ANF - Great earnings, huge international growth potential, and it has pulled back significantly from it's highs on basically no news.

AMZN - pulled back from its highs after two fantastic earnings reports, the holiday season is upon us, and I believe they will continue to beat estimates.

AAPL - Game changer!

BWLD - I love the company, earnings are great, football season is upon is, and they still have a lot of room to grow.

EBAY - I love the price action in the name, something is brewing at EBAY, holiday season, new local classifieds, and they have a gem - paypal

ERTS - Madden '08!

FMCN - fantastic earnings power, China Olympics.

GS - After the smoke clears, GS has plenty of room to run, trades at 8 times earnings - cheap?

GOOG - Google will rule the world!

MCHX - I should have sold a week ago, but wanted to hold through earnings, big mistake - will likely sell.

MVIS - I believe in this technology, every kid in America will be playing his favorite YouTube video on their cell phone/iphone/Gphone.

NVDA - Come on, you know something is going on over here, not to mention PS3 and computer upgrades due to vista.

RS - Consolidation in the industry, RS is dirt cheap.

SHLD - I believe in Eddie

RIG - CVX and DVN just found a shitload of oil deep beneath the Gulf, RIG has the contract. Fantastic financials, great synergy with GSF, a gift if it falls any lower.

UA - Just had an incredible quarter, everybody loves this stuff, football season, acquisition target.

XTO - Too many positives to name.

Making a list helps me get rid of my losers and prevents me from selling potential winners. I feel I am well positioned for the upcoming months and will continue to add to these names on dips.

2 comments:

Danny said...

good show.

yes, it is this late.

IIO said...

Good luck with your plan. Watching CNBC, I get the impression that alot of people are expecting this to be a short-lived correction.