Friday, August 3, 2007

GS: Bought @ 185.11
Here is a comment from Danny:
"They were supposed to earn ~22-24 / per share, let's say when the pps was 224. 10x earnings.
Even if the market is now discounting GS 9 x 24 = 216

Even if estimates are wrong, totally wrong, 25% wrong AND were discounting them.
18*10 = 180
18*9 = 162

So, my latin tells me were approaching a cheap as fuck situation for GS, even if the market is retarded"
Note: I also sold JSDA, I bought it hoping for a massive short squeeze-- didn't get it.


grant said...


I haven't analysed the numbers, but, GS carries a lot of off-balance sheet liabilities that make valuations pretty meaningless, unless you have access to the data.

*Bridging loan commitments
*Credit revolvers
*Derivative exposure

These can change the valuation in a material way.

Fly etc are valuing this on momentum, hoping for a bounce, they may get lucky, they may not.

Fast falling equity ratio's have a habit of creating problems with banks.

jog on

Ragin' Cajun said...

I hear you Grant, I'm wish I would have waited to add to my position, after the whole bear sterns fiasco!

Danny said...

I like the new layout rage, although I must admit I felt special being one of but a few links on the left. I see the distintion has still been made on your "financial blogs" site, thanks.

as far a GS, I try and not extrapolate through fear. If no one knows the valuaiton, as you say grant, then the stock must be worth 0

Danny said...

^or 150, or 250. With a longer term perspective, you can't argue with investing in the premiere investment bank in the world.

Ragin' Cajun said...

In my view, the company is cheap! I only regret adding to my position right before the Bear Sterns CC.

JJ2000426 said...
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